The Petrobras investment plan 2026-2030 was approved on 28 November 2025: US$109 billion in planned capex, with more than US$78 billion pointed at upstream exploration and production. Numbers that size get quoted everywhere and explained almost nowhere. If you supply equipment or services, the only question that matters is narrower: where, concretely, will the purchase orders land — and who signs them?
This article maps the plan to categories of procurement, then uses the awards already signed in 2025 and 2026 as evidence of where the money actually flows.
The Petrobras investment plan 2026-2030 in numbers
- US$109 billion in total capex: US$91 billion in the implementation portfolio, US$18 billion still under evaluation, per the official announcement.
- More than US$78 billion for upstream E&P, concentrated in pre-salt deepwater, per the U.S. Commercial Service’s market intelligence note.
- Oil production peaking at 2.7 million barrels per day in 2028; total output peaking at 3.4 million boed in 2028-2029.
- Eight new production systems due onstream by 2030 — seven already contracted, with the twelfth Búzios unit (P-91) in bidding.
- US$13 billion — 12% of the plan — tagged to energy transition initiatives across segments.
Two structural notes before you build a forecast on this. First, roughly a sixth of the plan is not yet firm: the US$18 billion evaluation portfolio depends on project sanction. Second, Petrobras revises its business plan every year. Treat the direction as reliable and the decimals as provisional.
The procurement pipeline behind the capex
Trade coverage of the plan — notably BNamericas’ analysis of how the capex will be deployed — translates the headline into a physical shopping list: around 6,000 km of rigid and flexible lines and umbilicals, roughly 200 subsea trees, and nine subsea EPCI contracts over the period. Add what Petrobras itself disclosed with the plan, and the pipeline looks like this:
- Subsea hardware: ~200 wet christmas trees plus wellheads and connection systems.
- ~6,000 km of rigid pipe, flexible pipe and umbilicals to tie wells back to the new units.
- Nine subsea EPCI packages bundling engineering, procurement, construction and installation.
- Around 40 offshore support vessels to be chartered for E&P logistics — see how foreign owners get into Petrobras vessel tenders.
- A US$2 billion coastal shipping program: 20 vessels and 18 barges.
- Topsides, modules and integration work for the FPSO series behind the 2028 production peak.
Note what the list implies about cadence. Subsea trees and flexibles move through recurring Petrobras frame agreements and repeat tenders — a rhythm you can build a sales pipeline around. The EPCI packages are episodic: one award decides years of downstream purchase orders in a single stroke. Vessels sit in between, tendered in waves as field logistics demand. Match your tracking effort to the rhythm of your category, not to a generic quarterly check-in.
Recent awards show where the money lands
In February 2025, Subsea7 took the lead in the Petrobras bidding process for the Búzios 11 SURF package, valued at around US$1.4 billion — the subsea umbilicals, risers and flowlines for one phase of one field.
In 2026, Subsea7 announced another Petrobras award, for Sépia 2 — classified as a “super-major” EPCI contract, the company’s largest bracket, above US$1.25 billion.
Read those two awards carefully and the structure of the market appears. Petrobras signs one EPCI contractor per package; that contractor then issues hundreds of purchase orders downstream — line pipe, coatings, connectors, valves, buoyancy, survey, marine logistics. If you are a specialized supplier, your customer is often Subsea7, TechnipFMC, Saipem or McDermott, not Petrobras itself. The same logic applies to the FPSO contractors building the production units. We map that second tier of buyers in our guide to selling to operators and EPCs beyond Petrobras.
The FPSO series behind the 2028 production peak follows the same pattern one level up: Petrobras contracts or charters the unit, and the FPSO contractor buys the topsides packages — power, compression, processing, safety systems — from its own supplier base. Different buyer, different registration process, same US$109 billion source.
Who actually issues the purchase order
| Category | Typical buyer | Route in |
|---|---|---|
| Subsea trees, flexibles, umbilicals | Petrobras direct (tenders, frame agreements) | Supplier registration + Petronect |
| SURF installation / subsea EPCI | Subsea7, TechnipFMC, Saipem, McDermott | Contractor vendor qualification |
| Components inside EPCI packages | The EPCI contractor’s supply chain | RFQs, driven by local content targets |
| FPSO hulls, topsides, integration | MODEC, SBM Offshore, Yinson, Seatrium | Package RFQs, yard procurement |
| OSV charters (PSV, AHTS, RSV) | Petrobras direct charter tenders | Vessel tenders via Petronect |
| MRO, consumables, services | Petrobras units (catalog and tenders) | Petronect registration |
Local content decides who buys from whom
Current offshore local content commitments run at 18% for exploration, 25% for well construction and 40% for subsea systems — 50% for onshore concessions — under the framework consolidated by Lei 15.075/2024 and ANP regulation issued in March 2025. For EPCI contractors, that 40% subsea figure is a design constraint: a meaningful share of their purchase orders must land with suppliers established in Brazil. The full mechanics are in our local content guide.
For a foreign supplier this cuts both ways. With no Brazilian footprint, you compete for the import share of each package. With a local partner, licensed production or your own entity, you become part of the answer to a contractor’s local content problem — a far stronger negotiating position than a better price.
What to do with the plan — this quarter, not in 2028
- Place your product in the table above and identify whether Petrobras or a contractor issues your purchase order.
- If Petrobras buys direct: start supplier registration as a foreign company now — registration comes before invitation, and complex scopes may also require technical pre-qualification.
- If contractors buy: get onto their vendor lists before the remaining EPCI and FPSO packages are awarded, because qualification after award is usually too late for that project.
- Track the tenders in English as they publish, rather than reading about the awards in the trade press.
The Petrobras investment plan 2026-2030 is not a promise of orders. It is a map of where the tenders will come from — and the suppliers who win them are the ones registered, qualified and watching when each process drops.
Frequently asked questions
How much of the Petrobras investment plan 2026-2030 goes to E&P?
More than US$78 billion of the US$109 billion total goes to upstream exploration and production, with pre-salt deepwater taking the largest share. Refining, transport and marketing take US$15.8 billion, and gas and low-carbon energies around US$4 billion.
Is the US$109 billion guaranteed spending?
No. US$91 billion sits in the implementation portfolio and US$18 billion remains under evaluation, and the plan is revised annually. Signed awards — Búzios 11, Sépia 2 — are the reliable signal of money actually moving.
Can foreign suppliers bid on this work directly?
Yes, in many categories. Petrobras flags processes as national or international, and foreign companies can register as suppliers. Local content pressure means some scopes effectively require Brazilian presence or a local partner — check category by category.
Does the Petrobras investment plan 2026-2030 include new FPSOs?
Yes — eight new production systems are due onstream by 2030, seven of them already contracted, with the twelfth Búzios unit (P-91) in bidding. The units themselves are built by FPSO contractors, who run their own procurement for topsides and integration.
Where are the tenders behind the plan published?
On Petronect, Petrobras’ procurement portal, with an English-language reporting layer on the Petrobras transparency portal. They do not appear on PNCP, Brazil’s general public procurement site.
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